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Electric load forecasting is the process used to forecast future electric load, given historical load, weather information and current weather information. This work developed model for STLF using Artificial Neural Network (ANNs) approach. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) method is applied to forecast the short-term load for Khartoum State. A nonlinear load model for the load is proposed and several structures of ANN for short-term load forecasting are tested. Inputs to the ANN are past loads and the output of the ANN is the load forecast for a given day. The network with one hidden layer is tested with various combinations of neurons, and results are compared in terms of forecasting error. The model, when tested for seven random days, gives average percentage error of 3.11%.

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The key component in forecasting demand and consumption of resources in a supply network is an accurate prediction of real-valued time series. Indeed, both service interruptions and resource waste can be reduced with the implementation of an effective forecasting system.Significant research has thus been devoted to the design and development of methodologies for short term load forecasting over the past decades. A class of mathematical models, called Recurrent Neural Networks, are nowadays gaining renewed interest among researchers and they are replacing many practical implementations of the forecasting systems, previously based on static methods. Despite the undeniable expressive power of these architectures, their recurrent nature complicates their understanding and poses challenges in the training procedures.Recently, new important families of recurrent architectures have emerged and their applicability in the context of load forecasting has not been investigated completely yet. This work performs a comparative study on the problem of Short-Term Load Forecast, by using different classes of state-of-the-art Recurrent Neural Networks. The authors test the reviewed models first on controlled synthetic tasks and then on different real datasets, covering important practical cases of study. The text also provides a general overview of the most important architectures and defines guidelines for configuring the recurrent networks to predict real-valued time series.

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Erscheinungsdatum: 28.01.2019, Medium: Taschenbuch, Einband: Kartoniert / Broschiert, Titel: Short-Term Load Forecasting by Artificial Intelligent Technologies, Verlag: MDPI AG // MDPI, Sprache: Englisch, Schlagworte: COMPUTERS // Computer Science, Rubrik: Informatik, Seiten: 444, Informationen: Paperback, Gewicht: 1130 gr, Verkäufer: averdo

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An unconcealed struggle to optimise the operating cost of electricity can be easily witnessed when we refer contemporary researches based on load forecasting. Each of them has one primary aim in common, which is sustainable functioning of power system. Short term load forecasting (STLF) aims to predict system load over an interval of one day or one week. In power system the major operations like unit commitment, scheduling, load ow calculation and security assessments etc are mostly depends on STLF. An accurate electric load forecasting is an essential part in smart grid for smart generation scheduling. In this thesis six dierent models and their optimized models are presented, results shows that these models have great potential towards STLF.

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The Stacked Denoising Auto-Encoder (SDAE) is adopted firstly for short-term load forecasting using four factors. The daily average loads act as the baseline in final forecasting tasks. In this research, the Denoising Auto-Encoder (DAE) is pre-trained. In the symmetric DAE, there are three layers: the input layer, the hidden layer, and the output layer where the hidden layer is the symmetric axis. The input layer and the hidden layer construct the encoding part while the hidden layer and the output layer construct the decoding part. After that, all DAEs are stacked together for fine-tuning. In addition, in the encoding part of each DAE, the weight values and hidden layer values are combined with the original input layer values to establish an SDAE network for load forecasting.

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41,10 € *

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This book proposes a new optimization algorithm for solving short term load forecasting problem. Globalized Nelder Mead is used for training of Artificial Neural Networks. Nelder Mead is fast optimization algorithm with no gradient calculation. The weights of Neural Networks are tuned with the help of Nelder Mead algorithm. To find proficiency of this algorithm, Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) data and California data are taken for testing. Results show that proposed algorithm outclasses other techniques in literature.

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